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The highs and lows of opinion polls | 27/01/12

This week the Evening Standard published a poll by Comres which showed that 46% of Londoners would back Ken Livingstone in his bid to once again become Mayor of London, while 44% would vote for incumbent Mayor Boris Johnson.

This is the closest both candidates have been in the polls for a long time and the first time for months that Ken has taken the lead. So, on the face of it, (which is never how such polls should be read but always how they are reported) it could be said that the 2012 Mayoral election really is “on a knife edge” . With less than 100 days to go until judgement day on May 3rd the heat is most definitely on.

As a former Labour Party Campaign Organiser, I have worked on a variety of election campaigns, including the 2008 Greater London Authority election in the South London Borough of Lambeth and Southwark. I can understand how the recent opinion poll results will be making both the Boris and Ken camp feel and I can empathise with how the results will have gone down in the opposing camps.

For Boris’ side these results may be deflating, and to see a front page about their candidate falling behind at this crucial time will be demoralising. However, this may give Boris voters extra motivation. They don’t want their man to lose, and may feel that if the election is going to be a closely fought contest that they better get out and vote.

In the Ken camp I imagine the activists will be feeling quite smug, as a 2% lead is exactly what they had been working for. But how does this poll make Ken voters feel? They could now think that Ken might just win so they don’t need to bother turning out on May 3rd. 

The impact that opinion polls can have on election campaign strategy should not be underestimated. The recent signals give the electorate the perception that it’s going to be close, and political campaigning is about working with people’s perceptions of what’s happening and being in tune with the zeitgeist.

As a Campaign Organiser I tried not to worry too much about opinion polls. If you’ve been campaigning hard from the start, knocking on doors, talking to people and getting your message out there then you will know how the campaign is shaping up. However, not getting thrown off course by polls is at times hard to do.

In my view, the Evening Standard went after Ken hard last time, either because it sold newspapers (in 2008 it wasn’t free!) or they wanted Boris as Mayor of London. After a day of knocking on doors, motivating volunteers and printing hundreds of campaign leaflets the last thing I wanted to read was a poll that said our candidate might lose. I have never worked on a campaign or known a candidate who doesn’t think they can win – that’s half the battle. The last 100 days is a time to have the courage of your convictions, believe in what your campaigning for and don’t let any poll, journalist or news story detract you from that.

While writing this blog I kept thinking about the 1992 general election campaign, where the importance of opinion polls was dramatically over estimated. Neil Kinnock made, in hindsight, a rather embarrassing speech in Sheffield about a Labour victory and the BBC predicted a hung parliament. If there was ever an election which demonstrated the pitfalls of putting faith in polls, that one was a lesson to us all.